Economic Bulletin sets out Conflicting Economic Indicators

The Association of Mortgage Intermediaries has issued its recent Economic Bulletin which focuses on the UK Economy, Housing and Mortgage Market. With the economy emerging out of recession, an environment of low rate mortgages, positive news on inflation, improvements in the balance of trade and employment, AMI feel that consumer confidence will start to improve. They state however that there still remain fears based upon job security and the lack of pay awards.

Robert Sinclair, Chief Executive of AMI said: "House prices are back to the levels last seen 10 years ago, but London and the South East defy the national trend. The improvement in affordability, however has not led to greater accessibility of mortgages which leaves first-time buyers still frozen out of the market. As the credit market is not likely to ease in the near future, house prices are likely to continue to fall in real terms.

The mortgage market is a little stronger. We expect to see gross lending pick up a little in 2013, possibly reaching £145 billion, with a larger proportion through brokers than of late thanks to the FCA rules on advice and New Buy schemes. Most new build sales are via brokers because the developers require borrowers who have been properly vetted for affordability, and see intermediaries as efficiently managing that process."